Would You Take This Bet?

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Comments

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Picture of Dmitry33 achievements

+8 1. Dmitry commented 6 years ago

I would only take his bet if I got to flip the coin that I have in my pocket. 8-)
Picture of aaune19 achievements
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-7 2. aaune commented 6 years ago

So, correct me if I'm mistaken, but the message here is that you should take risks in life, because everything in life is a coin toss, right? I'm not stupid, I get the point, but this does not translate well into real life situations (apart from gambling), whichs renders this whole video moot. Dumb.
Picture of chance35 achievements

+8 3. chance commented 6 years ago

I'll correct you! We all make decisions in life. Some decisions we make have a costs/benefit outcome. This guy is showing us that we feel losses more intensely than we do gains.

Also, one word sentences are dumb! That's just how I really feel.
Picture of Geekster80 achievements

-2 4. Geekster (admin) commented 6 years ago

#1 Is that a rocket in your pocket ? >:)
Picture of Dmitry33 achievements

+1 5. Dmitry commented 6 years ago

#4 Nope, just really happy to see ya! >:)
Picture of RetroGrade7731 achievements

+4 6. RetroGrade77 commented 6 years ago

#2 No, most risks in life are not coin tosses. He uses the coin toss to simplify the situation to show how fear (loss aversion) causes us to miss opportunities. He starts with the coin toss but then gradually he improves the net chances of success to get better and better until you see that taking multiple chances guarantees you a net benefit. But you can't get that net benefit unless you take that first bet.

Yes, life is a series of bets but most bets in life are much better than 50/50. At some point risk aversion (fear) can cause you to miss so many opportunities that you lose at life.
Picture of cameramaster55 achievements

+2 7. cameramaster commented 6 years ago

I don't gamble, I'll take a calculated risk though!
Picture of loadrunner54 achievements

+1 8. loadrunner commented 6 years ago

Even in a 50/50 bet you can lose 100 times in a row.
Picture of nomaddaf22 achievements

+1 9. nomaddaf commented 6 years ago

This is a poorly constructed experiment.This is far less about their fear of risk and more about their warranted fear that it is a set up they can't win.If someone say "I'll bet you X that I can Y...." There is about a 99% chance they can do it.
Picture of c0mmanderKeen36 achievements

+1 10. c0mmanderKeen commented 6 years ago

50/50 is a bad bet of course! Loss aversion may be real, yes, but imagine the bet would be for 1000 and 1500$. Of course you would say no. The bet is still "as good" but in those dimensions it becomes clear that it's dumb. Statistics are not always a good way to make decisions.